PHOENIX — There are red states and blue states, but Arizona is one of the few purple states.
In a photo finish, Democrat Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake in the race to be Arizona’s next Governor, and it happened in an environment where more Republicans turned out to vote than Democrats.
Arizonans cast more ballots than any previous mid-term in the state’s history, 2.6 million.
Even with a record number of votes, the percentage of registered voters that participated was slightly down from 2018.
This is due to Arizona’s status as a rapidly growing state and voter registrations have grown tremendously in four years.
Despite an outcome that has Democrats winning more statewide offices, more registered Republicans voted in every category.
In Maricopa County, 481,975 Republicans voted early by mail compared with 450,020 registered Democrats.
Republicans made up over half of election day votes. Fewer than one-fifth of Election Day voters were Democrats.
Even in-person early voters, fewer than 100,000 voters in total, saw more registered Republicans than Democrats.
In all, registered Republicans had a nine-point advantage over Democrats in Arizona’s largest county.
When statewide numbers are made available early next year, the GOP advantage may fall to between six and seven points.
Knowing this, why did Katie Hobbs beat Kari Lake?
The answer is simple; Republicans and Independents in suburban areas of the state were much less likely to support Lake than their rural or urban counterparts.
Data from Arizona’s nine congressional districts make this clear.
Both Juan Ciscomani and David Schweikert won their suburban Tucson and Phoenix congressional districts. Kari Lake lost both districts to Hobbs.
Lake underperformed Schweikert by more than 5,000 votes and Ciscomani by almost 10,000.
Paul Gosar represents a western Arizona district that reaches into the West Valley suburbs of Phoenix. Lake underperformed Gosar by 16,000 votes.
Debbie Lesko’s district is entirely situated in West Valley suburbs, and Lake underperformed her by almost 30,000 votes.
Both Lesko and Gosar ran unopposed, and Lake did ultimately win these districts, but the contrast is stark.
Comparing the 2018 mid-term to 2022 at the granular level of voting precincts confirms the change in suburban attitudes.
A map done by election analyst Sam Almy shows Katie Hobbs won 311 precincts won by Doug Ducey in his 2018 re-election contest. The new Hobbs precincts are mostly situated in suburban areas of North Phoenix and the Ahwatukee/Chandler region of Maricopa County.
Lake managed to flip six precincts won by the 2018 Democratic nominee and the majority of these were in rural regions of the state.
The conclusion is clear, while Democrats had an impressive turnout, it was the defection of suburban republicans and independents that sealed the deal for Katie Hobbs.