FBI Director Christopher Wray testified on Capitol Hill Wednesday detailing new information about the assassination attempt against former President Trump, but he also spoke to a growing trend across the country of political violence that experts say has been pointing to something like this for years.
"We are in an elevated threat environment, and we have been for some time, and that comes from a variety of quarters," Wray said. "It is, it is, quite frankly, a dangerous time to be a prominent public official."
Rachel Kleinfeld is a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"I can't say I was very surprised. When you look at the statistics on political violence and how it's been rising since really 2016 in this country, not just against presidential candidates, but school board members and governors and city council people and so on. It was almost inevitable that we would see something against a major federal candidate at some point," Kleinfeld said.
The data is overwhelming. Since 2016, threats against members of Congress and federal judges have increased by 700% and 160% respectively.
Meanwhile, one in five local elected officials report threats every three months. And according to a Reuters report, 213 cases of political violence since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol marks the "biggest and most sustained increase in political violence" in 50 years.
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Gary LaFree is a criminologist who maintains a database of political violence incidents. He says there's "very little evidence" that the political polarization in the country will go away anytime soon, and believes things have gotten more violent in recent years.
"A lot of the movements in the 70s really tried not to kill people," LaFree said. "You know, they're bombing a building, and they warn people in advance, stay out of the building during this period of time, etc. Now terrorists want a lot of people watching and a lot of people dead."
The attempted assassination of former President Trump, the attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband, the attempted shooting of Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg, and a foiled kidnapping plot against Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer all occurred in just the last four years.
LaFree and Kleinfeld point to a variety of factors for the rise in incidents, such as social media and political rhetoric. But they say what's often left out is loneliness.
"We're getting more and more isolated over time," LaFree said.
"One of the things that's really declined in America is joining groups of people who aren't like you," Kleinfeld added.
But incidents of political violence don't have to be the norm. Experts say leaders can influence violence in either direction.
"There's enormous potential for good," Kleinfield said. "We have lots and lots of research showing that when political leaders make statements about violence one way or another, it really affects the tenor of their followers."
