American historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential election winners, continues to stick by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.
His prediction comes despite polls trending toward former President Donald Trump in recent weeks.
He gave his latest outlook on Monday to WTTG-TV.
"I don’t change my prediction on the fly in response to the polls or the conventional wisdom. If I did that, I’d be useless as a forecaster. Might as well just go with the polls," he said.
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Last week, Lichtman joined Scripps News and gave a similar answer. He said generally events that occur in the final weeks of the campaign have little influence on his predictions.
"I've always made my predictions before that," he said. "There hasn't been an October surprise that's changed my prediction or changed the outcome of the election, including when I predicted Donald Trump, against all odds in 2016," he said while noting a leaked "Access Hollywood" video. "I didn't change my prediction. So the October surprise notion is very much exaggerated."
Lichtman says that his 13 key prediction system doesn't depend on which two candidates are in any given race. Rather, it's a system he's created that essentially grades the strength and performance of the current White House party in control.
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The formula uses economic features, social unrest, policy change and party mandate to determine his predictions.
"I wanted to make clear that the keys to the White House are based upon governing, not campaigning," he said. "My predictions are totally non-partisan. They have nothing to do with my political views. I predicted the two most conservative presidents of our time, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump, both cases contrary to the polls at that time. And I predicted liberals like Barack Obama and stuck with him when the polls turned against him after his disastrous first debate with Mitt Romney."
