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What’s ahead for the Tucson economy?

Growth, inflation still likely but slowing

Scripps file photo

<p>A view of the skyline in Tucson, Arizona.</p>

By: Craig Smith

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and last updated

TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) — We all live inside this economy and it has been a rough year but what can we expect from the year ahead?

University of Arizona economist George Hammond says, “The good news is that it looks like inflation here in Arizona has turned the corner and started to come down, but it's still running much hotter than we're seeing nationally.”

UA’s Eller College of Management just hosted its 40th Economic Outlook Luncheon.

Hammond says major inflation drivers are easing but still high, like the cost of gas or the cost of buying or renting a place to live. And if you locked up a reasonable lease or a mortgage when the rates were still low, those are pockets of protection from some of the biggest strains on your budget.

He says this could be the time to make the jump to a new job with better pay.

“Where we're seeing the strongest job growth these days compared to where we were before the pandemic it's, you know, transportation, and warehousing. Those jobs increased significantly. It looks like they're slowing down a little bit these days. Manufacturing is really one sector that stands out that's done a lot better than expected.”

Hammond warns job growth may slow down and unemployment could go up in the coming year but he says Tucson and Arizona economies should continue to grow, just grow more slowly.

Gus Faucher was the featured speaker at the luncheon of the coming year he says, “It is going to be a difficult period, but it won't be as bad as, for example, what we experienced with COVID or the recession that we experienced in 2007-2008.

Faucher is Chief Economist at PNC Financial and often speaks on national media. He says technical job skills will be in demand.

He says if you want a house, wait for prices to fall even more.

“And then I think in terms of investors, you know, don't panic, if you're going to be retiring over, you know, in the very, let's say, seven or eight years in the future. Don't worry. Stock prices are down over the past day or over the past week or over the past month, hold the long term and recognize that yes, we do see swings in stock prices, but generally the trend in the market is up that you should be holding for the long run.”

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