TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) — There’s a lot at stake in the waiting game for Arizona election results, and the thin margin in several races will probably swap back and forth based on where the latest vote count came from.
Different Arizona counties have different political personalities and as they report their results you could see the lead in several tight races switch back and forth until the last county reports the last vote.
People running for statewide office in Arizona have to appeal to a state with a split personality—really several splits. Rural counties tend to vote conservative, Pima County leans liberal and Maricopa has a conservative history with a recent tendency towards becoming more liberal.
The leads will also swing back and forth based on when the ballots were cast. Lately Democrats have been more likely to use early ballots while Republicans tend to vote on election day.
Some of this delay is a reflection of how large Arizona’s population has grown, and also the popularity of early ballots which require extra time to verify signatures.
Nationally the midterm has contradicted the polls that said Democrats would be crushed because midterms usually go against the party of the current President. Democrats seem to have lost some ground but not as much as expected.
Does that mean pollsters blew it?
Arizona Corporation Commissioner Lea Marquez Peterson has used polls as she ran for office but she says modern technology makes it easier for voters to avoid a pollster’s questions.
“And it's really shifted from calling landlines to getting a lot of calls via texts. Now you get them via email. I think it's harder and harder for pollsters to call cell phone numbers and try to get people to speak. And that certainly impacts the data that's received.”
Former Arizona Governor candidate Steve Farley thinks people are simply less willing to share their politics with a pollster.
“I don't know that polls really can tell us what we're thinking anymore. I think we just have to wait until the ballots show up. There are a lot of people who have reason to not go public with their opinions and they're not going to talk to pollsters.”