Jumpin’ Joe: Coffee prices hit record highs, impacting Tucson consumers and businesses

TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) — Coffee lovers in Tucson are grappling with an unwelcome jolt as prices for their favorite beverage surge to record levels.

The cost of arabica beans, the staple for most coffee blends, has soared by 70% this year, marking the steepest rise since 1977.

At Decibel Coffee, nestled in the Mercado Annex on Tucson’s west side, co-owner Nick Hoenig says that the price increases began during the pandemic, which led to supply chain issues and shortages.

“The last three months have seen the biggest increase,” he says. “But prices have been climbing steadily since 2020.”

Hoenig shared insights into the multifaceted causes behind these price hikes, calling it a “stew of variables and inputs.”

The reasons, Hoenig explained, span the globe. Geopolitical instability, such as unrest in Yemen impacting the Port of Djibouti—a key transit point for coffee shipments—plays a significant role.

Additionally, climate change has wreaked havoc on coffee production. Droughts and untimely frosts have disrupted crops in major coffee-growing regions, such as Brazil, a coffee powerhouse that largely impacts the global price of coffee.

“Brazil sets the price for the coffee market,” said Ian Victors, owner and roaster at Tucson Coffee Roasters. “Whatever Brazil does, everyone else follows.”

Victors says green coffee prices have risen 40% since 2020. He was able to maintain a price of $19 per pound for years but has been forced to raise it to $22 per pound in the past year.

However, he says coffee weight can be misleading.

“If I buy one pound of green coffee, it loses weight because of moisture,” he said. “So if I roast five pounds, I need six because it loses about twenty percent of its weight.”

For Tucson’s coffee shops and roasters, the rising costs are creating tough decisions.

“The market will only bear a certain price,” Hoenig noted. “If I have to choose between swallowing some of those margins or passing them onto customers, I want to keep my customers.”

Decibel Coffee has already informed its wholesale clients of upcoming price adjustments, and Hoenig predicts further increases through 2025.

“Food costs are rising, transportation costs are going up,” Hoenig said. “We’re all going to pay the price.”

Hoenig also warns of potential price increases for machinery, such as espresso machines, which he says have also been increasing since 2020 as the industry became more consolidated.

The ripple effects of these price hikes are being felt across Tucson. Other local coffee businesses echo Decibel’s sentiment, warning of similar price increases soon.

As coffee prices continue their upward trajectory, Tucson consumers may need to brace for more expensive mornings. For business owners like Hoenig, the challenge lies in finding a balance that keeps the coffee flowing without alienating loyal customers.

“We just have to get creative about reducing waste and paying our farmers the right amount,” he says. “The problem is, we expect it to cost a certain amount and we also expect a certain amount of innovation from these farmers. Somewhere there’s a gap in logic as to what we should be paying for this.”

He says that efforts to increase coffee yields are underway, such as experiments by the University of California to grow coffee in the U.S. (outside of Hawaii). He also mentions efforts from China to grow coffee, which have proven successful as the country’s coffee consumption increased over the past decade.

Hoenig says that these innovations are necessary to continue our current consumption patterns.

“As demand increases, we can’t increase the amount of farmable land that we have,” he said. “A coffee tree takes seven years to produce its first seed, so the return on investment takes a long time and you have to use it to the fullest amount.”